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Missed The Flop
Joined: 05 Dec 2005
Posts: 61
Location: Clifton KS,
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 The Rule of Four-Two
I came acrossed this as an easy way to calculate the % of your hand hitting. I think it can really help you make a quick decison on weather to stay in a hand or to fold instead of pulling out a calculator.
The rule of four-two is an easier way to figure the odds for any situation where you know your outs. It is not completely accurate but it will give you a quick "ballpark" figure of your chances for making a hand. Here is how it works.
With two cards to come after the flop you multiply your number of outs by four. With one card to come after the turn, you multiply your number of outs by two. This will give you a quick figure to work with. If you have a four-card flush after the flop you have nine outs. With two cards to come, you multiply the nine by four and you get 36 percent chance of making the flush. The chart shows the true odds at 35 percent. With one card to come you multiply nine by two and get 18 percent. The chart shows that the true figure is 19.6. It is not completely accurate but it is pretty close, and it is an easy calculation to do in your head.
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| Thu Dec 08, 2005 6:04 am |
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Chill
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 17
Location: Denmark
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Cool, it makes it much easier to calculate for me as a newbee.
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 3:03 pm |
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Missed The Flop
Joined: 05 Dec 2005
Posts: 61
Location: Clifton KS,
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Chill, just one thing to remember though as a newbie. When your calculating "pot odds" you need to calculate just the next card coming though.
Like on the flop if you have the flush draw and somebody bets out a $100 making the pot $500. You've got 9 outs in making the flush draw. Your getting 5 to 1 on your money and your % of making the flush is about 18% on the turn giving you about 4 to 1 to make your flush. You are getting proper odds to call here.
I've seen some people use the calculation to figure out what the odds are to make it to the river. Say they guy now bets $250 instead of $100. The odds of making it on the turn is still 4 to 1 but not it's costing you $250 to win $650 wich is giving you a little better than 3 to 1 on your money. Not horrible odds but it does make it -EV. If you were figuring for the next two cards you would be getting a +EV which you would make the call every time.
The reason you can't count the next to cards in your calculation is because if you do miss the draw you are probably going to face another bet on the turn.
I think that calculation is helpful though when your facing an all-in because it really doesn't matter because you are paying to see the next two cards with your call.
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 5:16 pm |
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sipka
Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 28
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This is great, I was just wondering what is exactly pot odds...
Meantime I have searched for it and found a similar counting:
"If you have a flop with 4 to a flush, you have 9 outs to make your flush.
9/50(turn)+9/50 (river)=36% (actual 35%)
for the turn, you have the same 9 outs
9/50=18% (actual 19.6%) "
But what is EV? (Sorry, my mother tongue is not english, so sometimes I don't really understand the abbreviatinos :))
Thanks in advance!
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| Sat Dec 10, 2005 10:31 pm |
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sis_corner
Joined: 11 Dec 2005
Posts: 4
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Chill wrote:Cool, it makes it much easier to calculate for me as a newbee.
Same here! Thanks!
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| Tue Dec 13, 2005 12:33 pm |
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Missed The Flop
Joined: 05 Dec 2005
Posts: 61
Location: Clifton KS,
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EV is expected value so +EV would be a positive Expected value.
If you got your money in in with pocket Aces vs. Pocket 10's in the long run you are going to have a +EV, the guy with the 10's is going to have a -EV.
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| Tue Dec 13, 2005 10:35 pm |
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Chill
Joined: 06 Dec 2005
Posts: 17
Location: Denmark
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I see the logic in it, but as a newbie it's not easy doing the maths fast enough. After the river I won't have time to sit and think how you did the calculation :?: I guess it all comes down to playing enough with small blinds until I feel I have the hang of it.
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| Tue Dec 13, 2005 11:52 pm |
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sipka
Joined: 07 Dec 2005
Posts: 28
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Same here, I can guess and estimate the outs, but to do the math completely I feel myself a little inexperienced. Maybe it will come by practicing more :)
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| Fri Dec 16, 2005 6:48 pm |
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miller2348
Joined: 18 Dec 2005
Posts: 39
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I think a good way to learn the odds is to use some of the software available to help you atleast while you are starting out. I had a hard time calculating the odds (and still do at times) but using some of the free tolls available has helped me with the learning curve.
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| Sat Feb 04, 2006 1:27 pm |
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